Do Not Underestimate The Obi – Kwankwaso (OK) Movement – Opinion
Whether you agree with Peter Obi or not, don’t make the mistake of dismissing the OK Movement, and here’s why.
Let’s look at the numbers.
During the 2023 presidential election, Peter Obi got 6.1 million votes nationwide. He won Lagos, Abuja, Edo, Rivers (unofficial), and all 5 SE states. He also dominated much of SS, and got over 2 million votes in the North.
Remember, this was Peter Obi’s first presidential election, and he ran against two already established candidates: Tinubu, who had the backing of Buhari, and Atiku, who had a strong Northern base and PDP structure.
Now add Kwankwaso to the equation, and the calculation changes.
Kwankwaso got about 1.4 million votes in 2023. Most of those votes came from Kano. Most other voters saw the election as a 3-horse race and voted strategically.
An Obi – Kwankwaso ticket changes that calculation.
The Numbers
- Obi + Kwankwaso: 7.5 million votes (PO 6.1m + Kwankwaso 1.4m)
- Atiku + Amaechi: 7.2 million votes (Atiku 6.9m + Amaechi 300k).
I gave Amaechi 300k because his highest contribution to Buhari in 2019 was about 150K. I doubled that.
This puts the OK Movement ahead on paper.
The Biggest Unknown
The biggest unknown is Buhari’s political base, which gave about 5 to 6 million votes to Tinubu in 2023.
Where do those votes go in 2027?
- Do they remain with Tinubu?
- Do they split between Tinubu, Obi – Kwankwaso, and Atiku?
Calling the numbers is very difficult at this stage because most of Buhari’s 5 to 6 million votes came from the NW. Kwankwaso is from the NW. Atiku is established in the NW. Tinubu is the President.
From my estimates, the NW is our battleground for 2027. The region will ultimately decide the winner of the 2027 Presidential election.
One thing is certain: the Obi – Kwankwaso alliance is well positioned for 2027. Anyone dismissing the OK Movement is making a mistake.
