External Borrowing
External Borrowing
- $21.5 billion + €2.2 billion + ¥15 billion (Requested May 2025):
- President Tinubu sought approval for $21.5 billion, €2.2 billion, and ¥15 billion in external loans for 2025–2026.
- Using approximate exchange rates:
- $1 ≈ N1,600 (based on naira depreciation to N1,600 by December 2024).
- €1 ≈ N1,800 (assuming a slightly higher rate for euros).
- ¥1 ≈ N11 (based on typical yen-naira rates in 2024).
- Conversion:
- $21.5 billion × N1,600 = N34.4 trillion
- €2.2 billion × N1,800 = N3.96 trillion
- ¥15 billion × N11 = N0.165 trillion
- Total: N34.4 trillion + N3.96 trillion + N0.165 trillion ≈ N38.525 trillion
- Note: This is a proposed amount, and approval or disbursement status is unclear as of May 2025.
- $800 million World Bank Loan (Approved July 2023):
- Approved to cushion fuel subsidy removal.
- $800 million × N1,600 = N1.28 trillion
- $3 billion AFREXIM Loan (August 2023):
- Secured by NNPC against future oil royalties to stabilize the naira.
- $3 billion × N1,600 = N4.8 trillion
- $7.8 billion (Requested November 2023):
- Part of the 2022–2024 external borrowing plan for infrastructure, health, education, and security.
- $7.8 billion × N1,600 = N12.48 trillion
- $6.45 billion World Bank Loans (Reported April 2025):
- X posts claim Tinubu borrowed $6.45 billion from the World Bank in under two years.
- $6.45 billion × N1,600 = N10.32 trillion
- Note: This may overlap with the above loans (e.g., $800 million or $7.8 billion), as the World Bank is a common lender. To avoid double-counting, I’ll treat this as potentially included in the $21.5 billion or $7.8 billion unless specified otherwise.
Domestic Borrowing
- N20.1 trillion in Bonds (June 2023–May 2024):
- Tinubu’s administration borrowed N20.1 trillion from domestic investors in one year, a 117% increase from the previous year.
- This covers only the first year, so the second year’s domestic borrowing is not fully reported but could be similar or higher.
- N757.98 billion for Pension Liabilities (Requested May 2025):
- Bonds to clear pension debts under the Contributory Pension Scheme.
- Total: N0.758 trillion
- $2 billion Foreign Currency Bonds in Domestic Market (Requested May 2025):
- Tinubu sought approval for $2 billion in foreign currency-denominated bonds in the domestic market.
- $2 billion × N1,600 = N3.2 trillion
Ways and Means Securitization
- N7.3 trillion Ways and Means Loan (Securitized December 2023):
- Converted into long-term debt, adding to the N22.7 trillion securitized under Buhari, totaling N30 trillion.
- Tinubu’s contribution: N7.3 trillion
Total Borrowing Estimate
Adding the confirmed and non-overlapping figures: - External: $800 million (N1.28 trillion) + $3 billion (N4.8 trillion) + $7.8 billion (N12.48 trillion) = N18.56 trillion
- The $21.5 billion + €2.2 billion + ¥15 billion (N38.525 trillion) is excluded from the total to avoid potential double-counting, as it’s a recent request and may not be fully disbursed.
- Domestic: N20.1 trillion (bonds) + N0.758 trillion (pension bonds) + N3.2 trillion (foreign currency bonds) = N24.058 trillion
- Ways and Means: N7.3 trillion
- Total: N18.56 trillion + N24.058 trillion + N7.3 trillion = N49.918 trillion
If this new request of 45 trillion is added
49.9+45
President Tinubu will have borrowed
94.5 trillion in 2 years
Kunle Oshobi
